ポール・モーランド（Paul Morland）は、人口変動と政治、経済、国際関係の結びつきを研究するイギリスの人口学者。オックスフォード大学で哲学・政治・経済の学士号と国際関係論の修士号を取得し、ロンドン大学で博士号を取得した。ロンドン大学バークベックの研究員、オックスフォード大学セント・アントニーズ・カレッジの上級会員を務めた。民族紛争において人口の構成や増減がどのように政治戦略と結びつくかを研究し、新聞への寄稿やBBCなどでの放送出演を通じても、歴史と現代の人口問題を論じてきた。2019年の『人口で語る世界史』（原題 “The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World”）では、産業革命以後の約200年を対象に、出生、死亡、移住の変化から帝国の興隆や国家間の力関係を捉え直した。人口増加の地域差や年齢構成を、政治史を読むための要因として位置づけた。『人口は未来を語る』（原題 “Tomorrow’s People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers”）では視点を将来へ移し、出生率、寿命、移民、教育、食料生産などを手がかりに、西アフリカの人口増加と東アジア・南欧の高齢化を比較した。2026年には、マクロ経済学者フィリップ・ピルキントンと『Bust: The Economics of Population Decline』（未邦訳）を共著。生産年齢人口の縮小と高齢化が労働・資本市場、住宅、福祉国家にもたらす影響を扱い、人口増加を前提とした経済の仕組みがどのような課題に直面するかを論じ、出生率を支える政策と社会のあり方を検討した。
Paul Morland is a British demographer whose work examines the connections between population change, politics, economics, and international relations. He earned a bachelor’s degree in philosophy, politics, and economics and a master’s degree in international relations at the University of Oxford, followed by a doctorate at the University of London. He has been an associate research fellow at Birkbeck, University of London, and a senior member of St Antony’s College, Oxford. His research has considered how population size and composition become instruments of political strategy in ethnic conflicts. He has also discussed historical and contemporary demographic issues through newspaper articles and broadcasts, including appearances on the BBC. In The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, published in 2019, he examined roughly two centuries since the Industrial Revolution through changes in births, deaths, and migration. The book connected regional differences in population growth and age structure with the rise of empires and shifts in power between states. Tomorrow’s People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers turned toward the future, using fertility, life expectancy, migration, education, and food production to compare population growth in West Africa with ageing societies in East Asia and southern Europe. In 2026 he coauthored Bust: The Economics of Population Decline with the macroeconomist Philip Pilkington. The book examined how a shrinking working-age population and an ageing society affect labour and capital markets, housing, and the welfare state. It questioned economic arrangements built around continued population growth and considered policies and social conditions that could support higher birth rates.
